Illusion of Luck or How Our Brains Play Tricks on Us

The human brain is wired to seek order and meaning in chaos. When events seem to defy the laws of probability, we start looking for causes and connections that simply aren’t there. Gamblers on hot or cold streaks, investors convinced a stock is “due” to rebound, fans sure a team is cursed—we all fall victim to apophenia and confirmation bias. The latest scientific perspectives suggest perceived lucky and unlucky streaks are cognitive illusions.

Faulty Wiring Behind Streaks

What is it about the human mind that leads us to imbue meaning into random outcomes at Casino Casiny? Evolutionary psychology provides one explanation. According to researchers, the human brain evolved to excel at pattern recognition as a survival mechanism. Those who could spot threats in the environment like a rustling bush were more likely to pass on their genes.

The problem is that we’re too good at finding patterns. Our brains connect dots that aren’t really connected, an instinct that serves us poorly in complex probabilistic scenarios. We also tend to notice and remember events that confirm our existing beliefs and expectations about the world. So if we believe an event is not due to chance, we’ll focus on the evidence that supports that belief.

Together, these tendencies result in streaks that are purely coincidental yet feel meaningful.

Role of Memory

Not only do our brains fool us into seeing causal links between unrelated events, our memories betray us as well. A 2022 study demonstrated the role memory errors play in lucky streaks.

Researchers had participants flip a coin 300 times and try to predict if it would land on heads or tails. The coin flips were truly random but participants often perceived streaks of correct guesses where none existed. Their memories of recent predictions were faulty, so they believed they had predicted more accurately than they had.

The research demonstrates the role psychological biases play in conjuring illusions of predictive power during perceived streaks.

Allure of Winning

If streaks exist only in our minds, why do they feel so compelling? Neuroscience reveals that the brain’s reward circuitry makes streaks hard to resist. A 2021 study used fMRI imaging to scan the brains of gamblers during simulated games of chance after they had already experienced long runs of wins or losses.

During perceived winning streaks, areas associated with reward and positive arousal lit up. Dopamine surged in response to continued wins, even when the outcomes were predetermined, not skill-based. Losing streaks had the opposite neurological effect. The more losses mounted, the more gamblers’ motivation and emotion circuits were suppressed.

These findings help explain the euphoric feeling of being “in the zone” during a winning streak or hot hand at the casino. As much as we may try to rationally understand the outcomes are random, it’s hard to override the brain’s chemical response to reward.

Combating Biases

So how can we combat the cognitive and emotional biases that contribute to illusions of luck and predictive power? The first step is simply being aware of these biases. Once we know the brain is prone to apophenia and memory errors, we can catch ourselves when we start making connections between unrelated events.

It also helps to think probabilistically. Instead of looking for patterns in random data, consider the likelihood of different outcomes, given what we know about probability distributions. Rather than asking “What caused this streak?” we might ask “How common are streaks of this length, given the number of trials?” This trains us to think in terms of randomness rather than erroneous causation.

Of course, the rewards of perceived streaks have a strong pull. Until neuroscientists can tweak the brain’s dopamine receptors, the illusion of luck will probably persist. We may never act purely rationally, but understanding the science behind hot and cold streaks can help us catch our brains in the act.